Foxes, on the other hand are skeptical about grand theories, diffident in their forecasts, and ready to adjust their ideas based on actual events.

And Tetlock contends that there’s just no comparison: The foxes consistently make better predictions than hedgehogs do.

Today In: Leadership Low Unemployment Rate In … The aggregate success rate of Foxes is significantly greater, Tetlock found, especially in short-term forecasts.

That's the story of Don Laub, a surgeon whose … The parable of the fox and the hedgehog tells us that there are some who are guided by one big idea. Psychologist Phil Tetlock thinks the parable of the fox and the hedgehog represents two different cognitive styles. "The hedgehogs are more the big … On one side is a balanced central vision; on the other, the pursuit of contradictory ends. But I would classify the people who called the crisis as hedgehogs rather than foxes. A foxy economist would probably not incur the moniker Dr Doom. And Hedgehogs routinely fare worse than Foxes, especially in long-term forecasts. Decide if you’re a hedgehog or a fox The difference divides writers and the thinkers.

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